Amy Baker.
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A lead score sales could trust, built from our own CRM data

At an Australian workforce management and payroll platform, I built a lead score in HubSpot from our own CRM data. Every lead was scored on three questions: are they the right fit, are they interested, and are they interested now? Points came off as well as on, sales knew which enquiries to prioritise, and our retargeting reached the businesses most likely to buy.

Three questions behind every score

Each one could add or take away points

Right fit
+ More MAUs+ Industries we win− Personal email
Interested
+ Visits and key pages+ Email opens− Bounced email
Interested now
+ Recent visit− Points decay over time

Challenge

More leads were coming in, and the business needed to know which ones were most likely to become valuable customers, so sales could prioritise their enquiries and marketing could choose who to retarget.

What I did

Tested every field in the CRM against conversion and customer value, then built a lead score in HubSpot around three questions: are they the right fit, are they interested, and are they interested now. Every factor could add or take away points, and engagement points faded over time.

Result

A score sales could trust when deciding which enquiries to prioritise, and retargeting audiences built from our best-fit, most engaged contacts and companies.

The challenge

The platform helped Australian businesses with large workforces pay staff correctly under awards, alongside scheduling and timesheets. The business charged by monthly active users (MAUs), so a business with more staff on the platform was worth more.

As lead volumes grew, the business wanted a lead score. I wanted to be clear on what it would be used for first, because a score only helps if it changes what someone does next. Here, there were two jobs for it.

The first was helping sales prioritise. Sales only dealt with businesses that had made an enquiry, so the question was which enquiries were the most valuable and deserved the most effort, and who should follow them up. The sales team had senior and junior salespeople, and the senior salespeople won more often, so we wanted to test whether giving them the highest-scoring leads would win more of the most valuable deals.

The second was deciding who to retarget. We knew about many more businesses than had enquired. HubSpot showed us which companies visited the website, and others had subscribed to our newsletter, downloaded a piece of collateral, been added as a target account, or were deals we’d worked on or lost before. We wanted to stay in front of the best of them, without paying to retarget everyone.

My approach

Start with the data, not the points. Before scoring anything, I went through every field in the CRM and asked whether it could tell us how likely a lead was to convert, how valuable they’d be as a customer, or whether they matched who we wanted to target. For each field that might, I built a small report to check whether it was linked to a higher or lower conversion rate, or a higher or lower customer value. For example, did businesses with more staff convert at a higher rate, and did people who visited certain pages on the website become customers more often? Only the fields that held up went into the score, as positive or negative points.

Field check: linked to conversion and value?Example
CRM fieldConversion rateCustomer valueDecision
Monthly active usersHigherHigherAdd points
IndustryHigher in someHigher in someAdd or take away
Key website pages viewedHigherNot clearAdd points
Personal email addressLowerNot clearTake away
Careers page visitsLowerNot clearTake away
An example of a field check, written for this page, with the figures left out.

This came after our move to HubSpot, once the data had been cleaned up and we had processes in place to keep it accurate. That timing was deliberate. A lead score is only as good as the data behind it, and the scores had to be accurate enough for sales to rely on.

Three questions. I built the score around three questions.

  1. 1Are they the right fit? This was the gate. A lead had to be a real, active Australian business with an ABN and about 20 or more MAUs, the same criteria the business used to qualify every enquiry. Leads that met the criteria scored higher when they went beyond them, for example with more MAUs, or in an industry where past CRM data showed we won more often.
  2. 2Are they interested? This scored how much they’d engaged with us: website visits and the pages they viewed, email opens, form completions, and engagement on social media. More visits and more ways of engaging earned more points.
  3. 3Are they interested now? This scored how recently they’d visited, engaged, or filled in a form. It carried the most weight for contacts who hadn’t filled in a form yet, where the question was whether they were looking at us right now. Anyone who filled in a form was called within about 15 minutes, so for them recency was always high.

What I built

Points that went down as well as up. Every factor could add or take away points. A bounced email took points off a contact’s interest score, and visits to the careers page, a sign of a job seeker rather than a buyer, took points off too. On fit, a personal email address lost points, and so did industries that don’t usually employ staff under awards. Engagement points also decayed: if someone hadn’t come back to the website within a set number of days, points came off automatically, so an old burst of interest didn’t keep a lead at the top.

A lead score in HubSpot. I built the score in HubSpot, listing the fields under each of the three questions, each with a positive and a negative score. This was before HubSpot had its current lead scoring tool, which now does a lot of the same things, with separate fit and engagement scores, score limits, and decay built in.

Lead score: fields and pointsHubSpot
QuestionFieldPoints
Right fitMore MAUs than the minimum+
Right fitIndustry we win more often+
Right fitPersonal email address−
Right fitIndustry not usually under awards−
InterestedWebsite visits and key pages+
InterestedEmail opened+
InterestedEmail bounced−
InterestedCareers page visits−
Interested nowVisited recently+
Interested nowNo visit for a set number of days−
An example of the scoring layout, written for this page, with the point values left out.

A test of routing by score. We tested sending the highest-scoring leads to our most experienced salespeople. In the end, we routed leads by calendar availability, and the score showed each salesperson which of their enquiries to prioritise and which were likely to be the most valuable.

Retargeting audiences. The score let me decide who went into our retargeting audiences, and who didn’t. That covered companies HubSpot identified from website visits, newsletter subscribers, people who’d downloaded collateral, target accounts, and past deals we’d worked on or lost. Those that were a strong fit and had engaged recently went in, so our ads reached the businesses most likely to buy, even if they hadn’t made an enquiry yet.

Score reporting. I built reports showing how scores were distributed across our leads and which leads scored highest, so the sales team could see where to focus their time.

Results

How the score was used

The same score, two decisions

EnquiriesEvery lead sales handled
Enquiry forms
SalesWhich to prioritise, and who follows up
Everyone else we knew aboutNo enquiry yet
Website visitorsNewsletter subscribersCollateral downloadsTarget accountsPast and lost deals
MarketingRetarget them, or not
  • Sales knew where to put their effort. Every enquiry showed how likely it was to convert and how valuable it could be, built from our own CRM data, so sales could prioritise and put the most effort into the leads worth the most.
  • A score that stayed current. Negative scoring and decay meant a lead’s score reflected what they were doing now, not what they did months ago.
  • Retargeting aimed at the right businesses. Ads went to contacts who were a strong fit and interested now, not to everyone who had ever visited the site.
  • A clearer view of lead quality. Score reports showed how many of our leads were a strong fit and highly engaged, and where sales should spend their time.

SiriusDecisions (now part of Forrester) found that trust in a lead score, and alignment between marketing and sales, correlate directly with how accurate the scoring model is. That’s why I tested every field against real outcomes before it earned points.

Source: SiriusDecisions (Forrester), “What Is Lead Scoring, Anyway?”

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What I’d do next

Score our campaigns and channels. Comparing the average lead score from each campaign and channel would show early on whether they were bringing in the right kind of leads, well before those leads had time to convert.

Use the score for nurturing. The same contacts we retargeted, strong fit and recently engaged but no form yet, could also go straight into a nurture email workflow.

Let AI check the field analysis. HubSpot’s lead scoring tool can now suggest fit and engagement criteria based on which past contacts converted. I’d use it to check my own reports and find fields I’d missed, and still test anything it suggests before giving it points.

FAQs

What’s the difference between rule-based and predictive lead scoring?

Rule-based scoring uses points you set yourself, based on what your data and your sales team tell you. Predictive scoring uses machine learning to find patterns in past won and lost deals and weight the factors itself. Predictive scoring needs a lot of history: Salesforce’s Einstein Lead Scoring only builds a model from your own data once you have at least 1,000 leads created and 120 converted in the last 200 days. Until then, rule-based scoring lets you start with the data you have, and you can see exactly why every lead got its score.

Is HubSpot’s predictive lead scoring accurate?

HubSpot’s “likelihood to close” score predicts the chance a contact becomes a customer within 90 days. It’s only available on Enterprise plans, and HubSpot describes it as a black box, so you can’t see how each factor affects the score. That makes it harder for sales to trust and harder to adjust. I’d use it alongside a score you’ve built and can explain, especially if the score decides who gets which lead.

How often should you review a lead score?

At least every quarter. Check the score against the leads that actually converted, look for new fields or behaviours worth scoring, and remove points from anything that no longer predicts a sale. It only works if the data stays clean, so field definitions and data entry need keeping up too.

Should every action run off the lead score?

No. Some actions should happen as soon as a key field changes. When someone who meets your basic criteria fills in a demo request, it should go straight to a call, whatever their score. The score is most useful for deciding who gets a lead and which leads to work first.

Sources: Salesforce, Sales Einstein Implementation Guide; HubSpot Knowledge Base, “Determine likelihood to close with predictive lead scoring” and “Understand the lead scoring tool”.

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